The evolution of crisis simulations: From static scripts to dynamic scenarios

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Dear reader,

Welcome to this week’s Wag The Dog Newsletter edition.

In this issue, I am exploring a hot topic in our field: the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on crisis communication simulation design.

As crisis management evolves, AI is emerging as a potential game-changer. But what's the current state of AI in crisis simulation design, and what might the future hold?

I’ll try to examine both present realities and future possibilities for AI in crisis communication training.

Enjoy!

PS: If you know of crisis simulation platforms that actually make use of real AI to improve simulations as described below, please let me know.

Table of Contents

• First some practical updates…

  • Wag The Dog on your mobile phone

  • Audio versions are now available for each article.

• The Evolution of Crisis Communication Simulations

  • Potential Crisis Simulation Enhancements with AI

  • AI as a Simulation Coaching Tool

  • Bridging the Simulation-Reality Gap

  • Current State of AI in Crisis Communication

  • Consider AI for improved crisis management

• References and further reading.

• Sponsor

• What I am reading/testing/checking out:

• Let’s meet..!

First some practical updates…

Wag The Dog on your mobile phone

You can now add the Wag The Dog Newsletter website to your mobile phone home screen like an app and decide if you would like to receive a notification when I publish a new article.

Step-by-Step Instructions to add the Wag The Dog Newsletter to a Mobile Phone Screen:

1. Open your browser: on your mobile device, open your browser.

2. Visit the Wag The Dog Newsletter Link: enter the URL www.wagthedog.io

3. Tap Share Icon: once the newsletter page is loaded, tap the share icon at the bottom of the screen (it looks like a square with an arrow pointing upward).

4. Add to Home Screen: in the share menu, scroll down and select "Add to Home Screen."

5. Customize Name: rename the shortcut if desired, then tap "Add" in the top-right corner.

6. Shortcut Created: the Wag The Dog newsletter will now appear as an icon on your home screen for easy access.

7. Allow notifications: click allow if you want to receive a push notification on your mobile when a new article is published.

Here’s also a short video about the procedure.

Audio versions are now available for each article.

Each new article on the Wag The Dog Newsletter will now also have a full audio version. When you read the article on the website, you’ll see an audio player at the top of each edition.

I picked “Matilda” as the AI voice for narration and hope you like it. 😅

The Evolution of Crisis Communication Simulations

In the past, crisis communication exercises often relied on fixed scripts with predetermined outcomes. While effective for team building and basic skill development, these methods fall short in replicating the unpredictable nature of real crises.

Potential Crisis Simulation Enhancements with AI

AI may improve crisis communication simulations by offering:

• Complex Scenario Building: AI might incorporate diverse variables—economic, social, technological, and environmental—to create nuanced and multi-layered scenarios, closely mirroring real-world complexities.

• Real-Time Adaptation: Unlike static scenarios, AI-driven simulations have the potential to evolve based on participants' decisions. This dynamic interaction can help professionals understand the cascading effects of their choices and better prepare for unforeseen consequences.

• Unexpected Challenges: AI is likely to excel at introducing surprise elements such as simulated activist campaigns or cyber-attacks, training professionals to stay flexible and responsive under pressure.

AI as a Simulation Coaching Tool

Beyond scenario creation, AI might serve as an invaluable coach in crisis management training:

• Decision Impact Analysis: AI could provide instant feedback on decision impacts, facilitating rapid strategic adjustments.

• Personalised Insights: By analysing decision patterns and external factors, AI is capable of offering tailored insights to enhance individual crisis management skills.

• Strategic Alternatives: AI's data processing capabilities are likely to suggest alternative strategies, expanding the range of options considered during a crisis.

Bridging the Simulation-Reality Gap

AI-supported simulations can bridge the gap between training and real-world application:

1. Proactive Risk Identification: AI tools are able to assess potential threats and enable proactive vulnerability management.

2. Continuous Learning: AI may continuously analyse data trends, refining crisis management strategies over time.

3. Organisational Resilience: Predictive analytics and forecasting models could help organisations anticipate crisis impacts and allocate resources effectively.

Current State of AI in Crisis Communication

As AI technology evolves, its role in crisis communication preparedness is likely to expand, offering more sophisticated tools for developing and refining crisis management capabilities. Communication professionals aiming to stay ahead should explore these AI-driven advancements, while also maintaining a balanced perspective on their benefits and limitations.

I mainly follow two platforms: Preppr.ai, under development by Justin Snair, and Conducttr, which includes an AI assistant.

On a simpler level, there are a few (Chat) GPTs that can be used for some scenarios, but they have limitations. Here are a couple of them:

• The WM Crisis Response Simulator

• The Crisis Simulation Game

• The PREPARE (Preparedness and Response Exercise for Public Health Emergencies) Simulator

• And of course my own Crisis Communication Role Player 😅

Consider AI for improved crisis management

As AI technology evolves, its role in crisis communications preparedness is likely to expand, potentially providing even more sophisticated tools to develop and refine crisis management capabilities.

Communication professionals who want to stay at the forefront of their field may benefit from learning about these potential AI-driven advances in crisis communications training.

However, it is important to look at these technologies with a balanced perspective that considers both their potential benefits and limitations.

What do you think?

References and further reading.

Pisit Praiwattana. (2018). Investigation into game-based crisis scenario modelling and simulation system. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Investigation-into-game-based-crisis-scenario-and-Praiwattana/6f171dc214203dc392652a9cacfa35da5bd648f6

Schijndel, van, Stolpe, A., & Hannay, J. (2021). Toward an AI-based external scenario event controller for crisis response simulations. International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management; https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Toward-an-AI-based-external-scenario-event-for-Schijndel-Stolpe/dfc76c0f732df3c741a378746202b828e7a4dbdc‌‌

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What I am reading/testing/checking out:

• Insight: Stuart Bruce analysed the PRovoke Media Influence 100 to understand what the 100 most influential in-house communications professionals really think about AI.

• Analysis; Crisis Monitoring in the Digital Age: The Global IT Outage Story Arc and Learnings.

• Tool: n8n - popular workflow AI automation platform for technical teams

• LinkedIn Article: How can you ensure consistency in messaging across various PR platforms during a crisis?

• Tool: Captions - AI avatar creator and video editing platform

• Video Interview: What are security leaders watching out for ahead of large scale events like the Paris Games?

• Graphics: For fun, I tested Story Illustrator. Here’s an AI generated story about the adventures of a crisis communicator during a flood.

Let’s meet..!

Here are the next upcoming events I’ll be attending. If you’re around, let me know and let’s meet.

• 🇧🇭 Al for Crisis Communications: Navigating Turbulent Times, 6-7 October, Manama, Bahrain

• 🇺🇸 Al and Crisis Communications: Navigating Turbulent Times, 10-11 October 2024, Chicago, USA

• 🇬🇧 Crisis Communications Boot Camp, 4-5 November, London, United Kingdom

• 🇺🇸 International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM) Annual Conference, 7 November, Colorado Springs, USA (remote).

If you would like me to run a workshop for your organization or speak at your conference, don’t hesitate to get in touch by return email.

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_{Parts of this newsletter were created using AI technology to draft content. In addition, all AI-generated images include a caption stating, 'This image was created using AI'. These changes were made in line with the transparency requirements of the EU AI law for AI-generated content. Some links in this newsletter may be affiliate links, meaning I earn a small commission if you click and make a purchase; however, I only promote tools and services that I have tested, use myself, or am convinced will make a positive difference.}