System Thinking in Crisis Communication: Boost Trust & Strategy Effectiveness

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Dear reader,

When disaster strikes, even the most meticulous communication plans can unravel in minutes. In this week's edition of the Wag The Dog Newsletter, we explore how systems thinking offers a more robust approach to crisis communication than traditional methods.

Rather than simply crafting the perfect message, systems thinking encourages us to consider how information flows through networks of people, how trust builds or erodes, and where small interventions might create outsized effects. The accompanying article walks through a fictional case study that demonstrates these principles in action during a forest fire emergency.

Whether you manage communications for a multinational firm or a local council, the lessons here may help you navigate your next crisis with greater clarity and effectiveness.

I hope you find it valuable.

Stay safe, Philippe

Table of Contents

• Announcement: The AI Nexus

• What is systems thinking?

• Using systems thinking when things go wrong

• Systems thinking in action: the Pine Valley fire

• Why traditional approaches fall short

• Putting it into practice

• Let’s meet!

Announcement: The AI Nexus

Before we go into the main story about system thinking, I wanted to let you know about the launch of April AI month.

We’re launching the Folgate Advisors AI Nexus - a new suite of strategic support services to help communications agencies, consultancies, and in-house professionals deploy AI safely and effectively. From leadership strategy to tooling and team training, this is about building real capability to meet real-world challenges.

Throughout April, we’ll run a series of free webinars, expert panels, live demos, drop-in sessions, and publish practical articles, all designed to help you:

• Spark ideas and curiosity about AI’s potential

• Build strategic and adaptive leadership

• Overcome adoption hurdles and drive change

• Upskill teams with short, high-impact learning

• Select and implement the right AI tools

Led by Julio Romo, Matt Collette, Lorna McDowell, Jenny Nicholson, Andrew Bruce Smith, and myself, this cross-sector team brings deep expertise across public and private markets.

What is systems thinking?

Systems thinking treats problems as parts of an organism rather than isolated incidents¹ . It is the difference between treating a symptom and understanding the whole patient.

At its core, systems thinking examines:

Stocks: accumulations within a system. In a crisis, stocks might include how many people know about the danger, how much trust exists between the public and authorities, or how many people have evacuated.

Flows: how stocks change over time—how quickly information spreads, how fast trust builds or erodes, or evacuation rates.

Feedback loops: chains of cause and effect. A positive loop might see clear communication increasing trust, which speeds evacuations. A negative loop might show how false rumours reduce trust, slow evacuations and cause more panic.

Leverage points: spots where small changes create big effects. During a crisis, the right message from a trusted community leader might shift public behaviour more than ten government press releases.

The approach helps spot how actions ripple through complex situations—often unexpectedly.

Using systems thinking when things go wrong

Traditional crisis communication focuses on crafting perfect messages. Systems thinking asks: "Then what happens?"

Take this scenario: a chemical spill occurs near houses. The council sends text alerts to all residents. Job done? Not quite.

A systems thinker asks: how many people received the message? How quickly did they act on it? Did the message itself cause problems? Did some people spread misinformation that counteracted official statements?

By mapping these elements, crisis teams can identify problems before they occur:

• If public trust (a stock) is already low, official messages may be ignored

• If information spreads too slowly (a flow), people might make decisions based on incomplete data

• If rumours create fear (a feedback loop), evacuation might happen too quickly, causing traffic jams

• If certain community leaders are not engaged (missing a leverage point), whole groups might miss critical information

This view leads to more practical strategies. Rather than just crafting messages, teams might focus on building trust beforehand, creating multiple information channels, addressing misinformation quickly and engaging trusted figures who influence community behaviour.

Systems thinking in action: the Pine Valley fire

Consider how this works with a fictional forest fire threatening Pine Valley, a rural town of 10,000 people.²

When the fire began, the crisis communication team approached it systematically:

Step 1: Model the system

They identified key stocks and flows:

• 1,000 residents initially knew about the fire

• Public trust in authorities was 50/100

• No evacuations had started

• Information was spreading at 500 people per hour

• Evacuation rates were 200 people per hour when trust was high, but only 50 per hour when it was low

This baseline helped them track how their communication changed behaviour.

Step 2: Map feedback loops

They identified two critical loops:

When communication was clear (hourly updates via the official app and local radio), trust increased to 80/100, evacuation speeds reached 200 people per hour, and people felt safer, which further boosted trust.

But when misinformation spread through social media, trust plummeted to 30/100, evacuations slowed to 50 people per hour, and the increased danger spread more panic, creating a vicious cycle.

Step 3: Find leverage points

The team identified three points where small changes could create big impacts:

• Increasing update frequency through the official app and local radio

• Engaging community leaders to counter misinformation

• Using the Emergency Alert System for real-time evacuation orders

These points offered more impact than general messaging.

Step 4: Test different strategies

The team ran simulations:

Scenario A: Sending hourly updates via the app and radio would inform 5,000 residents after five hours, with trust at 80/100 and 1,000 people safely evacuated.

Scenario B: If misinformation spread, trust would drop to 30/100, slowing evacuation and removing only 250 people from danger. Testing more frequent updates (every 30 minutes) showed trust could be maintained at 70/100, allowing 600 people to evacuate.

This approach meant the team did not just distribute information—they actively shaped how it flowed through the community, addressing problems before they emerged.

Why traditional approaches fall short

Traditional crisis communication often fails because it treats information as a product rather than a process. It assumes people will receive, believe and act on information in predictable ways.

Systems thinking recognises that humans are complex, and information moves through communities in unpredictable patterns. A message that works perfectly in one context might fail in another.

The Pine Valley example shows how tracking stocks (like public trust), flows (like evacuation rates) and feedback loops can help teams adapt when things go wrong. When misinformation caused trust to drop, the team had already identified this possibility and had backup strategies ready.

Putting it into practice

You do not need complex software or a mathematics degree to apply systems thinking. Start small:

1. Map your ecosystem: who are all the players in your potential crisis? How does information flow between them? Where might bottlenecks occur?

2. Track your stocks: what assets will matter during a crisis? Public trust? Employee morale? Media goodwill? How can you measure these?

3. Identify your leverage points: which channels or messengers have disproportionate influence? Which actions create ripple effects?

4. Plan for feedback loops: what positive cycles can you encourage? What negative cycles might emerge, and how can you break them?

5. Test and learn: run tabletop exercises that incorporate these elements, not just message distribution.

This approach will not eliminate crises, but it will help you navigate them with greater awareness of how your actions affect the whole system³ .

In our increasingly complex world, the ability to see beyond direct cause and effect is becoming essential. When the next crisis hits, will you be focused on crafting the perfect message, or will you understand how that message travels through the system of your organisation and community?

The answer might determine whether your crisis communication plan actually works when you need it most.

References and further reading.

1  Gonella, F., Casazza, M., Cristiano, S., & Romano, A. (2020). Addressing COVID-19 Communication and Management by a Systems Thinking Approach. Frontiers in Communication, 5. https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2020.00063

2  Steelman, T. A., & McCaffrey, S. (2012). Best practices in risk and crisis communication: Implications for natural hazards management. Natural Hazards, 65(1), 683–705. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0386-z

3  emhj. (2020). A Systems Thinking approach for responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. World Health Organization - Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean. https://www.emro.who.int/emhj-volume-26-2020/volume-26-issue-8/a-systems-thinking-approach-for-responding-to-the-covid-19-pandemic.html

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What I am reading/testing/checking out:

• Books on Sytem Thinking: Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows & Diana Wright - Practical Systems Thinking: Finding leverage on complex problems by several authors.

• Practical AI application: Leveraging AI in Travel Risk Management to Assess Vector-Borne Disease Risk

• Tool: Katalyst AI - create visual stories with consistent characters and scenes using storyboard AI

• Data: The Crisis Index 300 quantifies the financial impacts crises have had on publicly listed companies from around the world.

Let’s meet!

PS: I hope you've enjoyed this newsletter! Creating it each weekend is a labour of love that I provide for free. If you've found my writing valuable, the best way to support it is by sharing it with others. Thank you for reading!

_{Parts of this newsletter were created using AI technology to draft content. In addition, all AI-generated images include a caption stating, 'This image was created using AI'. These changes were made in line with the transparency requirements of the EU AI law for AI-generated content. Some links in this newsletter may be affiliate links, meaning I earn a small commission if you click and make a purchase; however, I only promote tools and services that I have tested, use myself, or am convinced will make a positive difference.}