How to communicate risks when you don't know all the answers

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Dear reader,

Here's what the best crisis communicators have figured out; admitting "we don't know everything yet" actually makes people trust you more, not less.

Whether it's a pandemic, a data breach, or a supply chain meltdown, the organizations that openly acknowledge uncertainty while giving people something concrete to do consistently come out ahead of those trying to fake it till they make it.

In this week's issue, I'm trying to explain why saying "I don't know..." can actually be a perfectly acceptable response when dealing with risk, crisis, and emergency communication, even if it seems a bit counterintuitive at first.

Happy reading.

Table of Contents

• Speaking in the Dark

• The transparency paradox

• The three-pillar model

• The language of uncertainty

• More than just recognition

• The imperative of speed

• Learn from failure

• Building your uncertainty toolkit

• The long game

• Let’s meet!

Speaking in the Dark

The alarm sounds. The phones light up. The reporters are circling. And you realise with a sinking feeling that you don't have all the information. You know that something important has happened, but the overall picture remains frustratingly unclear.

Welcome to every communicator's nightmare.

But this scenario is the reality of most emergency situations. Complete information rarely arrives before the need to communicate becomes urgent. The question is not whether you will be confronted with uncertainty, but how well you can deal with it.

The transparency paradox

What seems counterintuitive at first glance turns out to be crucial: admitting what you don't know increases your credibility instead of destroying it¹ . The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention puts it succinctly: often the most honest and credible response is to admit, 'This is an evolving emergency, and we just don't have all the answers yet. As soon as we have them, we'll let you know."

Think about how you respond to your organisation's leaders in uncertain times. You are more likely to trust those who admit their limitations than those who feign false confidence. Your audiences behave in the same way. Transparency signals authenticity. It shows that you respect them enough to tell them the truth, even if it's incomplete.

Think about how health authorities handled the initial communications about COVID-19. Those who explicitly stated that the guidelines would evolve with scientific progress were able to maintain the public's trust. Organisations that promised certainty they could not deliver, on the other hand, faced a credibility crisis when their initial statements proved false.

The three-pillar model

If you are confronted with incomplete information, you should structure your communication according to three clear pillars. This framework prevents you from simply admitting ignorance while providing a roadmap for constructive engagement.

Pillar One: "We know this. " 

Present verified, factual information that is beyond any doubt. Focus on proven patterns and confirmed data points. In the case of a data breach, this could include when the incident was discovered, which systems were affected and what actions were taken to immediately contain it.

Pillar two: "We do NOT know this. " 

Explicitly acknowledge information gaps. Anticipate your stakeholders' questions and directly address the areas where knowledge is still incomplete. In our example of the data breach, this could be uncertainty about the extent of the compromised information or the identity of the actors involved.

Pillar 3: "This is what we do to learn more. "

Explain the processes underway to gather additional information. Explain investigation efforts, investigative procedures and realistic timelines for updates. In the case of the data breach, describe the ongoing forensic investigation, the external experts involved and when you expect to provide the next update.

This structure achieves several important goals simultaneously. It manages expectations by establishing that the information will evolve. It maintains credibility by demonstrating transparency. It shows that you are actively seeking a solution.

The language of uncertainty

The way you express uncertainty has a big impact on public perception and behaviour. Research has shown that verbal uncertainty - words like "maybe"," "could" or "possibly" - affects credibility more than numerical uncertainty. If possible, use ranges or confidence intervals rather than vague statements.

Turn uncertain phrases into more confident ones. Instead of saying, "We may be able to restore operations," say, "We expect to be able to restore operations within 24-48 hours." Instead of "This could have an impact on customer data"," say "We are investigating the potential impact on approximately 10,000 customer records"

Phrase messages positively if circumstances allow. Research from nuclear emergency communications has shown that the statement "Drink only bottled water" is more effective than "Do not use tap water" The first version emphasises the protective measure, while the second focuses on the restriction.

More than just recognition

Acknowledging uncertainty is only the beginning. Effective crisis communication must provide actionable advice even when complete information is not available. People need concrete steps they can take to regain a degree of control in chaotic situations² .

During the 2008 financial crisis, people felt helpless when organisations simply acknowledged economic uncertainty without providing guidance. More effective approaches were to offer different levels of response depending on risk tolerance, provide backup activities for actions no longer recommended, and maintain regular points of contact to avoid information gaps.

Imagine a manufacturing company faced with a supply chain disruption whose duration is unclear. Rather than just saying, "We don't know when normal operations can resume," you should provide phased guidance: immediate steps for current orders, alternative arrangements for upcoming deliveries, and longer-term contingency plans if the disruptions last longer than originally anticipated.

The imperative of speed

Early communication builds trust and prevents rumours from spreading, even if the information is still incomplete. The World Health Organisation stresses that "lack of information is NOT a reason to delay the initial announcement of an actual or potential outbreak."

The first hour of a crisis, often referred to as the "golden hour", determines much of what comes after. Organisations that react quickly, even with limited information, tend to retain more control over their narrative than those that wait for complete clarity.

Develop holding statements for common scenarios before a crisis occurs. These templates should acknowledge the situation, express appropriate concern, outline immediate steps and commit to regular updates. Having these templates ready will allow you to respond quickly while ensuring that key messages remain consistent.

Learn from failure

Hurricane Katrina is a good example of communicating uncertainty gone wrong. In the disaster response, there were vague instructions from multiple spokespeople, confusing advice, inconsistent messages between agencies, and a failure to identify information gaps. These errors exacerbated the crisis and undermined public confidence at the very time when clear communication was most important.

In comparison, there are more successful examples. During the 2001 anthrax attacks, organisations that maintained professional networks and established clear communication hierarchies were better able to deal with uncertainty. They acknowledged both technical unknowns (about the threats themselves) and social uncertainties (about the coordination of responses) and maintained public confidence through consistent, honest information.

Building your uncertainty toolkit

Preparation makes communication about uncertainty possible. Develop communication guidelines for various emergency scenarios before they occur. Establish approval processes for releasing information in rapidly evolving situations. Build relationships with community partners and stakeholders who can help disseminate accurate information.

Train your spokespeople specifically in uncertainty communication techniques. This includes understanding the different types of uncertainty, methods for explaining complex concepts in plain language, strategies for maintaining credibility while recognising limitations, and skills for coordinating messages across multiple channels.

Create message templates that can be customised for different scenarios. These include frameworks for initial messages, confirmations of uncertainties, service interruptions and recovery updates. Having these structures ready allows teams to focus on situation-specific content instead of starting from scratch in hectic moments.

The long game

Effective uncertainty communication serves long-term organisational interests that go beyond immediate crisis management. Organisations that are known for their honest, transparent communication in difficult times build a reservoir of trust that will stand them in good stead for future challenges.

Watch how your uncertainty communication is received. Monitor how the public understands key messages, whether recommended actions are being followed, the level of trust in your organisation and whether misinformation is spreading. Use this feedback to refine your approach and improve your future communications.

Remember that communicating uncertainty is not a limitation, but an opportunity. It shows transparency, builds trust and engages communities as active partners rather than passive recipients. By admitting what you don't know while clearly communicating what you do know and what you are doing to learn more, you transform uncertainty from a communication obstacle into a bridge to stronger stakeholder relationships.

The next time you are faced with incomplete information in a crisis, resist the urge to wait for complete clarity. Make the uncertainty transparent. Your stakeholders will respect your honesty and your organisation will emerge stronger from the challenge.

References and further reading.

1  The CALM Approach to Communicating in Times of Uncertainty. (n.d.). Retrieved July 15, 2025, from https://publichealthcollaborative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2024_PHCC_Communicating-in-Times-of-Uncertainty.pdf

2  Perko, T., Benighaus, L., Tomkiv, Y., & Wolf, H. V. (2020). Guidance on communicating about uncertainties in nuclear emergency management. Radioprotection, 55, S169–S174. https://doi.org/10.1051/radiopro/2020028

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Let’s meet!

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