Mapping the Invisible: How Impact Chains Enhance Risk and Emergency Communication

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Dear reader,

Imagine trying to find your way around a sprawling city without a map or GPS. The landmarks blur into one another, the routes are unpredictable, and the way to your destination becomes a guessing game.

In many ways, this reflects the challenge that communications professionals face during a crisis or emergency.

This is where the concept of impact chains¹ comes into play, a tool borrowed from climate risk assessment that provides a structured way to visualise and manage the intricate web of factors that influence effective communication.

This week’s article of the Wag The Dog newsletter introduces the concept of impact chains, their adaptation to risk and emergency communication, and how they help professionals like you deliver clearer and more targeted messages when it counts.

Enjoy!

Table of Contents

• What are impact chains?

• Why use impact chains in communication?

• Building communication-specific impact chains

  • 1. Define the communication threat

  • 2. Identification of exposure

  • 3. Assess vulnerability

  • 4. Map of the chain

• Applications of impact chains in crisis scenarios

  • 1. Pre-crisis planning

  • 2. During the crisis

  • 3. Post-crisis analysis

• The visual advantage

• Collaboration is the key

• A tool for the new era of risk communication

• References and further reading.

• Sponsor

• What I am reading/testing/checking out:

What are impact chains?

Impact chains were originally developed to assess risks associated with climate change and disasters. They provide a visual framework that represents the relationship between hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts.

These components, which play a central role in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models, help to capture the complexity of risks in a systematic and understandable way² .

Within this framework:

• Hazards are disruptive events (e.g. hurricanes, misinformation floods).

• Exposure refers to who or what could be affected (e.g. population, communication systems).

• Vulnerability includes the factors that exacerbate the risk (e.g. language barriers, low trust in institutions).

• the impact is the ultimate outcome of these interactions.

Why use impact chains in communication?

Crisis communication often struggles with complexity. Stakeholders, target groups, and channels intersect in chaotic ways, and without a clear understanding of these dynamics, small missteps can turn into major failures.

Impact chains bring order to this chaos and enable professionals to recognise how communication hazards interact with target group vulnerabilities and risk factors to create risk.

Building communication-specific impact chains

Adapting the impact chain model for communication requires a reinterpretation of its core components:

1. Define the communication threat

Every crisis brings its own communication challenges. These may include:

• A flood of misinformation that suppresses credible voices.

• Limited access to communication channels due to infrastructure damage.

• Cultural misunderstandings that reinforce mistrust.

For example, during a public health emergency, conflicting messages from authorities can pose a threat by creating confusion and compromising compliance with safety guidelines.

2. Identification of exposure

Who is at risk of receiving or missing your message? Exposure in a communication context includes:

• Populations with limited access to technology or media.

• Frontline responders who rely on accurate information.

• Media organisations that need to inform the public in a timely manner.

3. Assess vulnerability

Vulnerabilities can arise from:

• Language barriers that make it difficult to access messages.

• Existing social problems such as mistrust of institutions or low media literacy.

• Infrastructural gaps, such as unreliable internet access.

Mapping these weaknesses helps to identify the weak links in the communication chain that need to be strengthened.

4. Map of the chain

Visualising the sequence of cause-effect relationships turns abstract ideas into a tangible strategy. For example:

Disaster → Loss of communication infrastructure → Delayed emergency warnings → Reduced evacuation rates → Increased casualties

Applications of impact chains in crisis scenarios

Once created, a communication impact chain is a versatile tool for various phases of crisis management:

1. Pre-crisis planning

Before a disaster occurs, you can use the impact chain to identify weak points in communication and prevent hazards. For example, if a community is particularly vulnerable to hurricanes but does not trust official warnings, it should invest in alternative communication channels such as community radio.

2. During the crisis

An impact chain can serve as a diagnostic tool, helping to identify and address bottlenecks as they occur. If misinformation spreads quickly, the lack of a central, authoritative voice could be the key weakness to address.

3. Post-crisis analysis

After the dust has settled, impact chains help to identify what went wrong and make future improvements. Did misinformation spread because the authorities sent out different messages? Was there a technical glitch that left certain communities in the dark?

The visual advantage

One of the greatest strengths of impact chains is their visual nature. A well-designed diagram can transform a confusing crisis landscape into an organised, understandable narrative. Key elements (nodes) and their relationships (edges) are visualised to illustrate where interventions can have the most impact.

For example:

1. Danger: A hurricane warning is issued.

2. Exposure: Population in vulnerable coastal areas with limited access to digital warnings.

3. Vulnerability: High distrust of government news and language barriers in non-English-speaking communities.

4. Impact: Delayed evacuations and increased casualties.

Collaboration is the key

Impact chains aren't built in isolation. Effective implementation requires the insights of multiple stakeholders—from government agencies to community leaders and media organisations. By involving these groups in the chain-building process, communicators can ensure that their strategies reflect the complexities of reality.

For example, a participatory workshop could uncover overlooked vulnerabilities, such as the fact that residents in remote areas rely on outdated AM radio stations to be informed about emergencies. Taking these insights into account will ensure that your communication strategy is as inclusive as possible.

A tool for the new era of risk communication

As crises and emergencies become more complex, the tools to manage them must also evolve. Impact chains offer communications professionals a systematic way to understand and address the root causes of message failure.

Whether it's clarifying the interplay of misinformation and trust or ensuring vulnerable populations receive critical information, this framework identifies pathways to more effective, inclusive communications.

Next time you're drafting a crisis communications plan, take a step back and map the chain of impact. This may not solve all the problems, but it'll help you see the path ahead more clearly and walk it with greater confidence.

References and further reading.

1  The vulnerability sourcebook and climate impact chains – a standardised framework for a climate vulnerability and risk assessment | Emerald Insight. (2019). International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 13(1), 35–59. https://doi.org/10.1108//IJCCSM

2  Andra-Cosmina Albulescu, & Iuliana Armaș. (2024). An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24(8), 2895–2922. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024

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What I am reading/testing/checking out:

• Research Report: The USC Annenberg Relevance Report

• Article: More Humanitarian Organizations Will Harness AI’s Potential

• Tool: A generative chat interface with in-depth knowledge on modern web technologies.

• Research Paper: A technocognitive approach to detecting fallacies in climate misinformation

Let’s meet!

Here are the events and conferences I'll be speaking at. If you're around, feel free to message me, and we can meet up for a coffee or a Negroni.

• 🇦🇪 AI for Crisis Communications Workshop, 29-30 January 2025, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

• 🇧🇪 AI in PR Boot Camp II, 20-21 February 2025, Brussels, Belgium

• 🇦🇪 New Horizons in Digital Content Creation and Data Analysis Conference, 23-24 April 2025, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

• 🇲🇽 Crisis Communications Boot Camp, 29-30 May 2025, Mexico City, Mexico.

• 🇸🇦 Crisis Communications Boot Camp, 4-5 June 2025, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

PS: I hope you've enjoyed this newsletter! Creating it each weekend is a labour of love that I provide for free. If you've found my writing valuable, the best way to support it is by sharing it with others. Thank you for reading!

_{Parts of this newsletter were created using AI technology to draft content. In addition, all AI-generated images include a caption stating, 'This image was created using AI'. These changes were made in line with the transparency requirements of the EU AI law for AI-generated content. Some links in this newsletter may be affiliate links, meaning I earn a small commission if you click and make a purchase; however, I only promote tools and services that I have tested, use myself, or am convinced will make a positive difference.}