When Trade Wars Strike: How AI Built a Complete (draft) Crisis Communications Plan

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Dear reader,

Following my 5 March article on "Tech's deepfake crisis: the game-theory approach", in which I tested AI in a fictional scenario, I decided to take things further.

This week I confronted my specially developed "Game Theory for Crisis Communication" GPT with a real-life situation: the current trade war between the USA and Canada.

The results where so good that I really need to start adding disclaimers like the one below 😅

Although this article analyses a real-life trade situation using publicly available information, all strategic recommendations should be vetted by qualified communications professionals before being applied to a specific company's situation.

Read on and let me know what you think. How are you using AI on a strategic level?

Happy reading, Philippe.

Table of Contents

• The challenge: trade tensions in the real world

• The process: game theory in action

• Risk planning: comprehensive timelines

• Crisis escalation modelling: preparing for real-wo …

• From strategy to practical communication tools

  • Pre-prepared response templates

  • Development of press releases and speeches for exe …

• Implementation roadmap

• The human element: important context

• A practical tool for crisis planning in practise?

• References and further reading.

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• What I am reading/testing/checking out:

The challenge: trade tensions in the real world

Using publicly available information about the trade dispute, I asked the GPT to develop a strategic crisis communication plan for a business-to-business consumer goods company that had been caught in the crossfire.

GPT analysed the situation in which America imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, after which Canada retaliated. It looked at how a B2B company operating in these markets would deal with increasing cost pressures, stakeholder concerns, and media attention in this geopolitical tension.

The process: game theory in action

The process was remarkably systematic and close to real strategic foresight analysis¹ . The GPT first analysed the dynamics of the trade war and then applied the principles of game theory, —treating each stakeholder as a strategic player with different interests and potential moves.

Six main players were identified in the analysis:

1. The B2B company (as the main decision maker)

2. Customers (business partners and buyers)

3. Media (journalists and industry analysts)

4. Competitors (competing companies in the same sector)

5. Industry associations (trade groups and lobby organisations)

6. Government representatives (policy makers in America and Canada)

Next, the GPT created a payoff matrix to evaluate four potential strategies to address the crisis:

• Public criticism of tariffs

• Taking a neutral position

• Private lobbying of the government

• Relocate supply chains

For each strategy, the possible outcomes were calculated based on stakeholder reactions, financial impact, and market positioning. The analysis showed that private lobbying of the government is the most balanced approach, allowing the company to influence policy while minimising external risks and maintaining operational stability.

Risk planning: comprehensive timelines

The GPT took a thorough approach to the trading situation by establishing a multi-layered risk mitigation framework:

In the short term (0-3 months), the GPT recommended lobbying policymakers to negotiate possible exemptions, tightly controlling media coverage to avoid political backlash, and managing rising supply chain costs through bulk purchases and forward contracts.

The medium-term strategy (3-12 months) includes practical steps to expand the market beyond the US-Canadian corridor, strengthen partnerships with alternative suppliers in unaffected regions, and introduce stable pricing models to retain customers during trade volatility.

For long-term resilience (12+ months), the plan outlined options for relocating certain operations to minimise tariff exposure, building diverse sourcing networks that span multiple countries, and developing durable crisis resilience strategies.

Crisis escalation modelling: preparing for real-world possibilities

The GPT went beyond basic planning and modelled five potential escalation scenarios² . Each scenario was accompanied by detailed risk assessments and specific response strategies:

Each scenario analysis included financial impact projections, stakeholder communication plans, and operational adjustments.

From strategy to practical communication tools

The GPT produced a range of communications materials tailored to the trade war, including:

Pre-prepared response templates

The system generated response scripts for various stakeholder interactions:

• Templates for media interviews that include questions on the impact of tariffs, pricing and supply chain stability

• Customer reassurance messages describing the measures taken to maintain security of supply

• Discussion guides for US and Canadian government representatives

• Communication frameworks for employees explaining the company's strategic position

• Statements for investors detailing the management of the financial impact

Development of press releases and speeches for executives

The GPT created four press release templates on the trade tensions:

1. Company response to tariff increases emphasising supply chain stability

2. Support for positive trade negotiations; positioning the company as a proponent of economic stability

3. Emergency statement for use in the event of sudden trade policy escalations

4. Managing director's speech at industry summits; positioning the company as a pioneer in trade resilience

Each draft document has been structured with key messages, authorised quotes, and strategic positioning.

Implementation roadmap

The final deliverable was a comprehensive implementation roadmap:

Immediate actions (0-3 months)

• Schedule internal briefings to align leaders with approved messages

• Initiate proactive communication on customer satisfaction

• Begin expanding advocacy efforts through industry groups

Medium-term implementation (3-12 months)

• Start transitioning procurement to minimise tariff burden

• Develop dynamic pricing models to adjust to increased costs

• Expand market presence beyond the US-Canadian trade routes

Long-term strategy (12+ months)

• Institutionalise trade war simulation exercises

• Evaluate permanent operational restructuring

• Maintain active media and public relations management

The human element: important context

Even though the GPT provided detailed analyses based on public information about the situation in US-Canadian trade, human oversight remains essential. The system provided a structured starting point that expedited the strategic planning process, but final decisions must be guided by human expertise.

The most efficient approach is to view AI as a collaborative partner that can quickly process information, generate options, and create a foundation on which communications professionals can build.

A practical tool for crisis planning in practise?

In contrast to my article from 5 March, which was about a fictional deepfake crisis, this exercise applied AI analysis to a real geopolitical situation.

The results show that AI systems, when properly guided and instructed, can provide a valuable strategic framework for braijnstomring the strategic communication side of trade tensions in the real world.

For communications professionals facing similar challenges, this approach could support initial planning while ensuring that stakeholder perspectives, strategic options and communication needs are fully considered by additional data and expertise.

The exercise shows that AI tools, when used and trained properly, can serve as powerful allies in crisis communications planning — not by replacing human judgement, but by improving our ability to respond quickly to complex situations.

Let me know what you think and how you are using AI for crisis, risk and emergency communication!

References and further reading.

1  Fitkov-Norris, E., & Kocheva, N. (2025). Leveraging AI for strategic foresight : unveiling future horizons - Kingston University Research Repository. Kingston.ac.uk. https://doi.org/Fitkov-Norris,%20Elena%20and%20Kocheva,%20Nataliya%20%20(2025)%20%20%20Leveraging%20AI%20for%20strategic%20foresight%20:%20unveiling%20future%20horizons.%20%20%20%20In:%20Crawford,%20Megan%20M.%20and%20Wright,%20George,%20(eds.)%20Improving%20and%20enhancing%20scenario%20planning%20:%20futures%20thinking.%20%20%20Cheltenham,%20U.K.%20:%20Edward%20Elgar%20Publishing.%20%20%20pp.%20285-304.%20%20%20%20%20%20ISBN%209781035310579

2  Yasir Atalan, Reynolds, I., & Jensen, B. (2025). AI Biases in Critical Foreign Policy Decisions. Csis.org. https://www.csis.org/analysis/ai-biases-critical-foreign-policy-decisions

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What I am reading/testing/checking out:

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• Resource: the UK Open Source Intelligence Community (OSINT)

• New development: The Operative, AI-driven interactive storytelling platform

• Article: Five Types of Disinformation Response

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_{Parts of this newsletter were created using AI technology to draft content. In addition, all AI-generated images include a caption stating, 'This image was created using AI'. These changes were made in line with the transparency requirements of the EU AI law for AI-generated content. Some links in this newsletter may be affiliate links, meaning I earn a small commission if you click and make a purchase; however, I only promote tools and services that I have tested, use myself, or am convinced will make a positive difference.}