In partnership with

Dear {{ first_name | reader }},

I have sat in enough boardrooms to know the look.

You ask a senior executive about crisis preparedness. They nod. They gesture toward the binder, or the shared drive, or the consultant's report from two years ago.

"We have a plan," they say.

And they mean it as a closing statement – not an opening one. The plan is real. The readiness is not.

In this edition of the Wag The Dog newsletter, we’re going to look at the crisis readiness gap of the C-level suite.

Enjoy!

WAG THE DOG NEWSLETTER | ISSUE WEEK 16, 2026

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • A crisis plan is not crisis capability. Having one does not mean your leadership team is ready to use it under pressure.

  • General leadership skills do not automatically transfer. Crisis performance requires specific capabilities – particularly emotional self-regulation, empathy, and sensemaking – that most executive development programmes do not build.

  • CEO overconfidence is a documented risk factor. Leaders who overestimate their readiness recognise threats later, resist advice more, and make worse decisions. Diverse governance structures help.

  • Simulations are the only reliable way to build the capability. Exercises with real C-suite participation, clear objectives, and structured debriefing improve both decision quality and confidence. Annual practice is the minimum.

  • The financial case is clear. Mishandled crises cost roughly three times as much in long-term stock value as well-managed ones. The investment in leadership preparedness is not a training budget line. It is a risk management argument.

What the numbers actually say

The research on C-suite crisis leadership is not ambiguous. It is simply uncomfortable.

Only 28% of board directors understand their organisation's crisis plan "very well."¹ Just over a quarter – 26.5% – work in organisations that test their plans annually.² And roughly 70% lack a functioning cross-functional crisis team.³

This is not a picture of struggling organisations. It is the general state of crisis preparedness across sectors and geographies.

The consequences are quantifiable. Organisations that mishandle a crisis lose, on average, 10% of their stock price in the first week. Twelve months later, they are still sitting 15% below their pre-crisis baseline. Organisations where leadership performs well in crisis limit those losses to around 5%.⁴

That gap – 5% versus 15% – is not explained by the quality of the crisis plan. It is explained by the quality of the crisis leader.

What the plan cannot do

A crisis plan is a decision support tool. It captures what you know before things go wrong: protocols, contacts, escalation paths, and pre-approved language.

What it cannot do is make decisions in real time. It cannot read a room, or regulate emotion under pressure, or communicate credibly when the facts are still unclear and stakeholders are frightened. It cannot exercise judgment in a situation it has never encountered.

That is the leader's job.

Research identifies several capabilities that distinguish effective crisis leaders from ineffective ones. Standard executive competencies – the skills that drive performance in normal conditions – do not reliably transfer.

Crisis leadership requires something more specific: the ability to make sound decisions under conditions of high ambiguity and high stakes, to manage emotional responses (their own and others'), and to communicate in ways that build rather than erode trust.

Emotional intelligence, specifically, is a stronger predictor of crisis leadership effectiveness than most organisations acknowledge. Self-regulation under stress scores at β=0.485 as a predictor of performance. Empathy at β=0.361. Perceiving emotion accurately accounts for 18% of the variance in leadership effectiveness during a crisis.⁵

These capabilities do not appear in most crisis plans. And they do not develop through reading them.

The rehearsal problem

The research is direct on this: simulations, tabletop exercises, and scenario-based rehearsals are the primary mechanism for building genuine crisis capability in leaders.

They improve decision-making. They surface overconfidence – a documented contributor to poor crisis outcomes – before it becomes consequential.

They allow leaders to experience the conditions of a crisis (time pressure, information gaps, competing demands, emotional intensity) in an environment where the cost of failure is learning rather than loss.

The recommended minimum is annual. Many organisations do not reach it. Those that do often send the wrong people: middle management, communication teams, and operational leads. The C-suite is briefed on outcomes rather than put through the experience.

This is backwards. The highest-stakes decisions in any crisis will be made at the top. The preparation should match that reality.

Two tips to close the gap

For C-level executives:

Your crisis plan is not your crisis capability. It is a tool for your teams to use while you are doing the harder work of leading.

That work – making rapid decisions with incomplete information, holding the trust of stakeholders, and communicating clearly when clarity is scarce – requires practice under realistic conditions.

The next time your organisation runs a crisis exercise, be in the room. Not as an observer. As a participant. What you learn about your own responses under pressure will be more useful than anything written in the plan.

For communication professionals who advise C-suite executives:

You already know the gap exists. The harder challenge is getting permission – and budget – to address it.

Here is the framing that tends to land: this is not a communication training request. It is a risk management argument. A poorly led crisis costs organisations 10% of their stock value in week one, and the damage lingers for a year. A well-led crisis limits that to 5%.⁴

Frame it that way, and it stops being an HR conversation and starts being a board-level one.

The plan exists because someone understood that crises are predictable in shape, if not in detail. The investment in leadership capability needs to come from the same understanding: that when a crisis hits, no document will lead your organisation through it. A prepared leader will. An unprepared one will not.

Until next week,

Philippe

P.S. I am building a six-week cohort programme — Before the Crisis — designed specifically for C-suite executives who want to build this capability before they need it. Not for communications teams. For the people who will be making the decisions. If that sounds relevant, reply to this email and I will share more details when they are ready.

P.P.S. If you are a communication professional reading this, the programme is designed for your C-suite, not for you. If you have been trying to make the case for better executive preparedness, this might be the thing to forward.

FOOTNOTES/REFERENCES

  1. Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, Being Prepared for the Next Crisis: The Board's Role (2022). The survey reports that only 28% of directors say they understand their company's crisis plan "very well."

  2. FTI Consulting, Organizations Are Least Prepared for Crises that Pose the Greatest Risk (2024). The survey reports that close to 70% of organisations lack an identified cross-functional crisis response team or a pre-selected list of external crisis response advisors.

  3. Wooten, L. & James, E.H., Linking Crisis Management and Leadership Competencies: The Role of Human Resource Development (2008). Market evidence indicates mishandled crises are associated with a 10% stock price drop after the first week and a position 15% below pre-crisis levels after one year, while effective crisis management is associated with smaller initial declines (approximately 5%) and quicker recovery.

  4. Two studies underpin the emotional intelligence figures cited here. The β=0.485 (self-regulation) and β=0.361 (empathy) coefficients are from: Salameh-Ayanian, M., Tamer, N. & Jabbour Al Maalouf, N., The Importance of Emotional Intelligence in Managers and Its Impact on Employee Performance Amid Turbulent Times, Administrative Sciences (2025). The figure that perceiving emotion accounts for 18% of the variance in leadership effectiveness is from: Rosete, D. & Ciarrochi, J., Emotional Intelligence and Its Relationship to Workplace Performance Outcomes of Leadership Effectiveness (2005).

Worth Attending + A Gift For You

I have a gift for you.

Free tickets to the Natural Disasters Expo USA

October 14–15, George R. Brown Convention Center, Houston – exclusively for Wag the Dog readers.

This isn't a generic trade show. It's where the people responsible for keeping communities safe come to work through the hardest problems: climate change, ageing infrastructure, extreme weather events, and population growth. Government, emergency leaders, and private-sector innovators are in one room, focused on building resilience before the next disaster hits.

Every headline satisfies an opinion. Except ours.

Remember when the news was about what happened, not how to feel about it? 1440's Daily Digest is bringing that back. Every morning, they sift through 100+ sources to deliver a concise, unbiased briefing — no pundits, no paywalls, no politics. Just the facts, all in five minutes. For free.

THE RADAR: WHAT I’M TRACKING

  • [WEBINAR] Global Risk Outlook Q2 - Key Geopolitical Developments

  • [TOOL] Best AI Agent for Non Techies

  • [ARTICLE] If human oversight fails, how can we build AI systems that don’t?

  • [REPORT] Global Communication Report conducted by the USC Center for Public Relations

LET’S MEET

🇺🇸 APR 16-17 | CHICAGO

🇨🇦 APR 23-24 | TORONTO

🇦🇺 JUL 14-15 | MELBOURNE

🇦🇪 OCT 9-23 I ABU DHABI

Transparency & Disclosures

AI Transparency: In alignment with EU AI Act requirements, please note that AI technology was used in the research, drafting, and/or image generation for this edition. All strategic analysis, professional opinions, and final editorial oversight are conducted exclusively by the author. Affiliate Disclosure: Some links in this briefing may be affiliate links. I only recommend tools and services I use personally or have vetted for professional efficacy. Professional Advice: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or professional crisis management advice. © 2026 RiskComms FZCO. All rights reserved.

Reply

Avatar

or to participate

Keep Reading