First UN Global Risk report: we're failing at the risks that matter most.

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Dear reader,

Remember last week I wrote about the OECD's research on emerging critical risks?

Well, the UN has just released its first global risk report and frankly, it confirms everything I was worried about from a crisis and emergency communication point of view.

After surveying over 1,100 stakeholders in 136 countries, they've produced a heat map showing where the world is most at risk and where our communication strategies are failing spectacularly.

The results? We are dangerously unprepared for the risks that matter most. And the patterns are eerily similar to what the OECD found.

Keep on reading…

Table of Contents

• The four blind spots that should keep you awake

  • 1. The information warfare we are losing

  • 2. The technology trap

  • 3. The societal pressure cooker

  • 4. The environmental reality check

• The connectivity problem that breaks our models

• Why "collective action" is the only way forward

• The barriers that are killing us

• The scenarios that show our future

• What you need to do now

• The bottom line

• Let’s meet!

The four blind spots that should keep you awake

The United Nations report² has identified what it calls "Global Vulnerabilities", risks that are of critical importance and for which we are ill- prepared. Sound familiar? It's the same gap that the OECD identified between risk identification and management capabilities¹ .

1. The information warfare we are losing

Misinformation and disinformation are becoming major concerns. People think these issues are very important, but believe that we are not doing enough globally to address them.

But what struck me is that the obstacles are not what you would expect. It's not just about fake news or deepfakes. The main obstacles include "gaps in data, accountability and lines of communication"

We're not only failing to stop misinformation, but we also lack the tools needed to tackle it effectively. This mirrors exactly what I said about the need for new frameworks.

2. The technology trap

The report identifies a technological cluster around cybersecurity vulnerabilities, AI risks and technology-driven concentration of power. Alarmingly, national and international institutions are failing to keep pace with rapid advances.

This confirms what the OECD has found as well and what I have repeatedly pointed out in recent newsletters: anyone not using data analysis and AI for early warning signals is flying blind.

Think about your last crisis plan. How much of it depends on digital infrastructure that could be compromised within minutes? How many of your communication channels could be used as a weapon against you?

3. The societal pressure cooker

The societal cluster (pandemics, biorisks, mass movements of people) shows something crucial: these are not isolated events. They are interrelated risks that reinforce each other.

COVID-19 has taught us something about crisis communication under pressure. However, the UN report shows that future societal crises will be even more complex and that multiple risks will occur simultaneously.

4. The environmental reality check

Climate risks consistently rank at the top of global concerns, underscoring their critical importance in today's world. However, this presents a significant challenge for effective communication: environmental risks often evolve in a manner that is both gradual and abrupt.

Initially, these risks may develop slowly, almost imperceptibly, over extended periods. Then, seemingly without warning, they can escalate into urgent crises that demand immediate attention and action.

The connectivity problem that breaks our models

This is where it gets really interesting. The United Nations has found that geopolitical tensions are the most interconnected risk; they are both a cause and a consequence of virtually every other major threat.

This destroys the foundation of traditional crisis communications planning. We have prepared for single events, when in reality we are dealing with a web of interconnected crises that reinforce each other. It's the same systemic problem that the OECD has identified: our frameworks are designed for yesterday's risks.

Take the report's "status quo" scenario: a fake video campaign showing a country preparing for war goes viral. The disinformation leads not only to a diplomatic crisis, but also to cybersecurity attacks, environmental damage from the digital arms race and a deterioration of public health systems as trust wanes.

Your crisis communication strategy must take into account how one crisis can trigger others. The old model of "containment and control" will not work if containing one risk shifts the pressure to another part of the system.

Why "collective action" is the only way forward

The survey results were overwhelming on one point: collective action by governments, the private sector and civil society is the most effective response to global risks. Unilateral action was consistently rated as less effective.

This reflects what both OECD and UN research shows: the countries and organisations that perform better don't just deal with risks better they also coordinate better.

The challenge in communication is to coordinate the messages of different interest groups with different incentives, different target groups and different legal restrictions. We have struggled with this in single country crises. Now we have to do it globally, in real time and across cultural and language barriers.

The report's "breakthrough" scenario shows what is possible: a global cybersecurity breakdown is resolved within hours through coordinated action between states and the private sector. The key difference? Communication systems that enable rapid trust-building and decision-making.

The barriers that are killing us

The United Nations has identified the biggest barriers to effective risk management, and they are all communication problems in disguise:

1. Weak leadership and coordination (no one knows who should say what)

2. Lack of political consensus (stakeholders cannot agree on the message)

3. Lack of trust and accountability (past communication failures have destroyed credibility)

4. Wrong risk prioritisation (we are communicating about the wrong things)

Can you think of what's missing from the key barriers? It's not funding, technology or even legal restrictions. The biggest barriers to managing global risk are communication failures.

This confirms everything I've written about the need for cross-functional risk teams and scenario-specific communication protocols. The infrastructure for effective crisis communication is simply not in place to the extent that we need it.

On top of that, we just don't have enough trained and experienced professionals. I've already explored this issue in my earlier research and article, highlighting the shortage of skilled communicators in risk, crisis, and emergency communication.

The scenarios that show our future

The UN has developed four scenarios based on the level of global co-operation. The stark differences between them reveal something crucial: the quality of communication coordination directly determines outcomes.

In the "breakdown" scenario, climate commitments are abandoned because the communication infrastructure to maintain international consensus collapses.

In the "breakthrough" scenario, the same risks are successfully managed because communication enables trust and rapid coordination.

Crisis communication is no longer just about managing individual crises. It is also about maintaining the communication infrastructure that enables civilisation to function.

What you need to do now

Based on this analysis and building on the findings of the OECD study here are the changes you should make immediately:

▶︎ Map out your connections: stop planning for isolated crises. Recognise how a crisis in your sector could impact others and how crises in other sectors could impact you.

▶︎ Build coalition communication skills: develop protocols for communicating with stakeholders you have never worked with before. When the next crisis hits, you won't have time to figure out how to coordinate with government agencies, non-governmental organisations and international partners.

▶︎ Invest in an information verification infrastructure: fighting misinformation isn't just about fact-checking. It's about having systems in place that allow you to quickly verify and share accurate information when trust is under attack.

▶︎ Develop communication strategies for uncertainty: many of these global risks are associated with great uncertainty. Traditional crisis communication assumes that you know what is happening. Develop a framework for communicating when you don't know.

▶︎ Test your cascade scenarios: conduct exercises that not only test your response to a single crisis, but to multiple interconnected crises that occur simultaneously.

The bottom line

The OECD has shown us that new risks require new approaches to governance. The UN shows us that existing risks are interconnected in ways that go beyond our traditional models.

The organisations and countries that figure out how to communicate effectively in this interconnected, uncertain environment will survive and thrive. Those that don't will find themselves constantly reacting to cascades of crises that they should have seen coming.

The question is not whether global risks will impact your business. The question is whether you are able to manage them before they become an existential threat.

We now have two roadmaps from the world's leading institutions. The only question is whether we will use them.

Will you?

References and further reading.

1  OECD (2025), Managing Emerging Critical Risks: Case Studies and Cross-Country Synthesis Report, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/1f9858ea-en.

2  (2025). Unglobalriskreport.org. https://unglobalriskreport.org/

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What I am reading/testing/checking out:

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Let’s meet!

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_{Parts of this newsletter were created using AI technology to draft content. In addition, all AI-generated images include a caption stating, 'This image was created using AI'. These changes were made in line with the transparency requirements of the EU AI law for AI-generated content. Some links in this newsletter may be affiliate links, meaning I earn a small commission if you click and make a purchase; however, I only promote tools and services that I have tested, use myself, or am convinced will make a positive difference.}