OECD Report – Your crisis playbook won't work for what's coming next

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Dear reader,

Last week, the OECD dropped a 106-page document¹ that could reshape how we approach crisis and risk communication.

The report, "Managing Emerging Critical Risks: Case Studies and Cross-Country Synthesis," analysed how four countries (Ireland, Israel, Korea, and the United States) handle the kinds of risks that keep us up at night.

We're not talking about your standard product recall or data breach here. These are the risks that don't fit neatly into our traditional crisis playbooks: AI-driven misinformation campaigns, cascading climate disasters, or the next pandemic variant that spreads faster than our ability to understand it.

The harsh reality? Most of our crisis communication strategies are still fighting the last war while the battlefield has completely changed.

Read on for the analysis and what it could mean for how we approach crises and risks.

Kind regards, Philippe

Table of Contents

• The Three Uncomfortable Truths About Modern Crisis …

  • Your Crisis Playbook Is Already Obsolete

  • The Single Source of Truth Is Dead

  • Public Engagement Is Now a Survival Skill

• The Technology Reality Check

• The Framework That Changes Everything

  • Step 1: Identify Before It's a Crisis

  • Step 2: Share Information Across Boundaries

  • Step 3: Implement with Accountability

• What You Need to Do Right Now

• The Bottom Line

• Let’s meet!

The Three Uncomfortable Truths About Modern Crisis Communication

Your Crisis Playbook Is Already Obsolete

The OECD research confirms what I've been arguing in recent newsletter editions² : emerging risks develop so quickly that traditional models based on historical data are essentially useless. We're trying to navigate unprecedented situations with maps drawn for familiar territories.

Korea's approach caught my attention. They've established a dedicated Centre for Risk Identification and Assessment (CRIA) that meets twice a year specifically to identify risks that don't exist yet. They're basically hunting for risks and crises before they materialise.

Stop perfecting your response to yesterday's crisis. Start building systems that can identify and communicate about tomorrow's risks while they're still just signals in the noise.

The Single Source of Truth Is Dead

Israel's model completely confirmed my assumptions about crisis communication ownership. Their National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) doesn't just coordinate responses, but they create legally binding risk assessments that every ministry must follow.

No more conflicting messages from different departments. No more turf wars during crises. Here's the thing: it's not about taking control; it's about bringing everything together in harmony.

The difference is crucial. You need to think beyond your own communication strategy. How are you coordinating with legal, operations, HR, and external stakeholders? Because in emerging crises, mixed messages don't just confuse—they kill trust permanently.

Public Engagement Is Now a Survival Skill

Involving the public in spotting potential risks is more than just a smart move for Ireland; it's turning into a must-do for staying ahead. Instead of simply telling people about possible dangers, they engage citizens directly through consultations, surveys, and horizon scanning activities to help pinpoint these risks.

Your approach to handling crises should involve engaging with the public, not just sharing information. The real question is whether you'll take the initiative to connect with the public or wait until circumstances push you into it.

The Technology Reality Check

Here's what really stood out from the OECD research, and it validates what I've been saying about AI and data analytics in crisis communication: the countries that excel at managing emerging risks are using technology to completely change how they think about risk.

Israel's National Digital Agency monitors everything from Google Trends to smartwatch data to detect early warning signals. They're literally reading the digital pulse of the population to identify risks before they become crises.

Korea uses AI and big data analytics not just for monitoring but for classification. They've created a framework that categorises emerging risks as "Black Swans" (high-impact, low-probability), "Black Elephants" (high-impact, higher-probability), and "Black Jellyfish" (accumulating risks that go unnoticed).

If you're not using data analytics to understand risk emergence, you're flying blind in an increasingly complex landscape.³  

The Framework That Changes Everything

The OECD identified a seven-step framework for managing emerging risks. Regular readers know I've been advocating for new approaches to crisis preparedness; well, here's the official validation.

Three steps are particularly relevant for crisis communicators:

Step 1: Identify Before It's a Crisis

Most organisations wait for risks to materialise before communicating about them. The leading countries in this study have dedicated processes for identifying and communicating about risks while they're still emerging.

Step 2: Share Information Across Boundaries

This goes beyond just working together internally. It's about building channels for information to move freely across different organisations, industries, and even countries.

Step 3: Implement with Accountability

The most sophisticated risk identification means nothing without implementation. The countries that excel have clear accountability mechanisms and performance indicators for managing emerging risks.

What You Need to Do Right Now

Based on this research, here are the immediate changes you should make to your crisis communication approach:

1. Create an Emerging Risk Radar: start monitoring signals that could indicate new risks in your sector. This isn't traditional media monitoring—it's pattern recognition across multiple data sources. (Yes, I know I keep harping on about horizon scanning, but now you have OECD research backing it up.)

2. Build Cross-Functional Risk Teams. Your crisis communication team needs to include people who can spot risks before they become crises. Think data scientists, trend analysts, and external experts.

3. Develop Scenario-Agnostic Communication Protocols. Create communication frameworks that work across multiple scenarios rather than specific crisis types. The next crisis might not look like anything you've seen before.

4. Establish Public Engagement Mechanisms. Build systems for involving stakeholders in risk identification, not just crisis response. Your audience might see risks emerging before you do.

5. Create Flexible Implementation Systems. Develop ways to rapidly deploy communication strategies for risks that don't fit existing categories.

The Bottom Line

The OECD research validates what I've been exploring in this newsletter: we're in a transition period where traditional crisis communication approaches won't cut it for the risks we're actually facing.

Organisations that embrace change are the ones that will flourish. On the other hand, those that resist may find themselves always playing catch-up with challenges they could have anticipated.

The real question isn't if new risks will shake things up; it's whether you'll be prepared to talk about them before they turn into full-blown crises.

Look at what Korea, Israel, and Ireland are doing. They're not just getting better at managing the same old risks. They're completely changing the game. And that's exactly what we need to do in crisis and risk communication.

What emerging risk signals are you seeing in your industry that nobody else is talking about yet? Hit reply and let me know. I'm collecting insights for a follow-up piece on sector-specific blind spots.

References and further reading.

1  OECD (2025), Managing Emerging Critical Risks: Case Studies and Cross-Country Synthesis Report, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/1f9858ea-en.

2  Borremans, P. (2025). Why Communities, Not Agencies, Hold the Key to Emergency Resilience. Wag the Dog Newsletter. https://www.wagthedog.io/p/why-communities-not-agencies-hold-the-key-to-emergency-resilience

3  Borremans, P. (2024). Strategic Foresight for Crisis-Ready Communications Leaders. Wag the Dog Newsletter. https://www.wagthedog.io/p/strategic-foresight-for-crisis-ready-communications-leaders

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What I am reading/testing/checking out:

• Article: Risk Everywhere: Why Geopolitical Risk Demands a New Era of Risk Intelligence

• Article: Think signals, not sentiment, to stay protected from ‘narrative threats’ in the new age of AI-generated content

• Paper: AI State of Play: The Technology, Strategic Communication Practice and Academia

• News: Qantas Data Breach Affects Six Million Customers

Let’s meet!

PS: I hope you've enjoyed this newsletter! Creating it each weekend is a labour of love that I provide for free. If you've found my writing valuable, the best way to support it is by sharing it with others. Thank you for reading!

_{Parts of this newsletter were created using AI technology to draft content. In addition, all AI-generated images include a caption stating, 'This image was created using AI'. These changes were made in line with the transparency requirements of the EU AI law for AI-generated content. Some links in this newsletter may be affiliate links, meaning I earn a small commission if you click and make a purchase; however, I only promote tools and services that I have tested, use myself, or am convinced will make a positive difference.}