- Wag The Dog Newsletter
- Posts
- Risk Communication Alert: The Earth's Solvency Dashboard You Need to See
Risk Communication Alert: The Earth's Solvency Dashboard You Need to See
How Financial Risk Principles Are Transforming Environmental Communication
Philippe Borremans
March 12, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes
In partnership with
Dear reader,
Imagine a room full of actuaries, climate scientists, and risk management experts discussing perhaps the most important dashboard of all time. It's not about share prices or website traffic, but something much more important: whether our planet can continue to support human civilisation as we know it.
This is the essence of "Planetary Solvency'," a ground-breaking report1 from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the University of Exeter, which applies the principles of financial risk management to our environmental crisis.
For communications professionals, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity to rethink the way we talk about planetary risk2 .
In this week's edition of the Wag The Dog Newsletter, I examine this report and draw specific lessons for crisis communicators. What can we learn from the way actuaries talk about risk? How can their concepts help us formulate more effective messages about complex, interconnected threats? And perhaps most importantly, how can we translate scientific knowledge into a language that encourages meaningful action?
The parallels between financial risk management and environmental communication are striking. In both areas, we need to concretise the abstract, strike a balance between urgency and actionability, and translate complex systems into terms that decision-makers can act on.
As you will see, the report's "RESILIENCE" framework offers valuable insights for anyone tasked with communicating about systemic risk. I have identified the key principles and developed practical examples of messages that you can adapt for your own context.
Whether you work in government, the non-profit sector, corporate communications, or emergency management, I'm confident you'll find valuable tools in this issue to improve your risk communication.
Read on, and as always, I welcome your thoughts and experiences 👍
Table of Contents
What is Planetary Solvency?
Just as financial solvency refers to a company's ability to meet its obligations, Planetary Solvency assesses "the Earth system's ability to continue supporting our human society and economy."
The report defines it simply as "managing human activity to minimise the risk of societal disruption from the loss of critical support services from nature."
The concept acknowledges a fundamental truth often missing from economic models: our economy rests on society, and society rests on the Earth system. When any part of this foundation crumbles, everything above it becomes unstable.
Key Findings: We're in the Red Zone
The report's findings are stark. We are taking far more risk with our planet than most people - including many policymakers - understand:
We are dependent on an Earth system that we are threatening. Our society and economy rely on ecosystem services (food, water, energy, raw materials) that cannot be replaced. Once they are gone, technology can no longer replace them.
The stability of the Earth system is under imminent threat "Climate change" (we should be careful with our choice of words and call it a climate crisis, IMHO) and the loss of nature is leading to unprecedented events. We are approaching or exceeding tipping points, which could lead to cascading failure of natural systems.
"Climate change" and natural risks have been massively underestimated. The impacts are hitting us harder and faster than the models predicted and are already affecting human security through fires, floods, food system shocks, water insecurity, and infectious diseases.
The current targets for "climate change" are not based on a realistic risk assessment. The Paris Agreement targets implicitly accept high risks of crossing tipping points. We have already exceeded the 1.5°C threshold (as a 12-month average), and warming is accelerating.
Current risk management practises are inadequate Global risk assessment does not take into account systemic risks, network effects and linkages between risks. This has led to policy makers accepting much higher risks than is generally assumed.
The RESILIENCE Framework
At the centre of the report is the "RESILIENCE" framework, a set of principles for effective global risk management:
The report presents a risk dashboard that maps five dimensions: economy, mortality, "climate change," nature, and society. The dashboard shows that we are already in the "red zone" - outside the safe risk parameters, with catastrophic or extreme impacts likely by 2050.
Implications for communication professionals
For us as risk, crisis and emergency communicators, this report presents a major challenge in how we approach our work. Here is what this means for our profession:
1. We need to communicate systemic risks, not isolated events
When we talk about floods, fires or droughts, we need to place them in the broader pattern of earth system disruption. The report shows how events interact through cascading and compounding effects. Our communication needs to reflect these connections rather than treating incidents as isolated.
For example, water scarcity is not just a localised drought problem, but is linked to food security, energy production, migration and conflict. Our messages should reflect these connections.
Example of a key message:
"Water shortages are already increasing food prices by 15% and threatening power production in our region. According to water authority data, this drought is part of a broader pattern affecting multiple systems. Addressing these connected challenges requires coordination across sectors, including agriculture, energy, and housing — not just water conservation."
2. Clarity on risk trajectory, not just current conditions
The report distinguishes between the risk situation (where we are now) and the risk trajectory (where we are heading). For "climate change", the current position is AMBER (severe impacts), but the trajectory is RED (catastrophic impacts likely by 2050).
When we communicate about emergencies, we should mention both the immediate situation and the trend line. This helps the audience understand that today's "unprecedented" event can become tomorrow's normality.
Example of a key message:
"Emergency services are currently managing flood response in affected areas. National Meteorological Agency projections indicate similar floods will occur every 3- 5 years by 2035, rather than every 25 years historically. To protect lives and property, we need both our current emergency response AND a 10-year infrastructure adaptation plan that addresses changing flood patterns."
3. Adopt risk-based language that policy makers understand
The report translates complex scientific findings into risk terminology that decision-makers can act on. It uses clear impact levels (limited, severe, decimated, catastrophic, extreme) paired with probability assessments.
This is a model for how we can move from vague warnings to concrete, actionable risk assessments that serve as the basis for decisions. a "possible risk of decimation-level impacts" carries more weight than "serious consequences"
Example of a key message:
"The Regional Water Authority's assessment shows we're facing likely disruptions to water supplies that could affect 800,000 residents within this decade. By 2040, these disruptions could reduce our region's economic output by 10%. These aren't distant possibilities—there's a greater than 60% chance these impacts will occur, based on current data. Acting now on water infrastructure would significantly reduce these risks."
4. Treat the health of the Earth system as fundamental, not optional
The report emphasises that economic health depends on the health of society, which in turn depends on the health of the Earth system. This hierarchy must be at the centre of our communications.
Instead of framing environmental protection as a cost or a trade-off to economic goals, we should view it as essential infrastructure maintenance. No sensible company would put off maintaining the foundations of its building in order to increase its quarterly profits.
Example of a key message:
"Our watershed provides £50 million annually in economic benefits through clean water, natural flood protection, and agricultural productivity, according to Treasury analysis. Protecting these natural systems isn't optional — it's essential infrastructure maintenance. Every £1 invested in watershed protection saves £4 in avoided costs for water treatment, flood damage, and agricultural losses."
5. Educate about non-linear risks and tipping points
The report shows how crossing certain thresholds can trigger rapid, irreversible change. Our communication often assumes a linear development — that the impacts will occur gradually and predictably.
We need to help audiences understand concepts such as tipping points (Amazon rainforest dieback, ice sheet collapse) and realise that they create risks that are qualitatively different from gradual change.
Example of a key message:
"We've already lost 28% of our mangrove forests. Marine biologists warn that if this reaches 35%— which could happen within two years at current rates—we'll trigger a rapid collapse of coastal protection. This isn't a gradual process: once this threshold is crossed, over 12,000 homes would face immediate flooding risks during storms. We have a narrow window to prevent this by implementing the Coastal Protection Plan, which would halt and reverse mangrove loss through proven restoration techniques."
6. Bring imagination to the risk scenarios
The report calls for "imaginative scenarios" that analyse tail risks and combinations of factors, even if they cannot be precisely quantified. This calls into question the common practise of focussing only on the most likely outcomes.
Communications professionals should include "what-if" scenarios that help audiences visualise both catastrophic consequences and transformative solutions3 .
Example of a key message:
"Three separate emergencies hit Houston in 2021: a heatwave, power failures, and water contamination. The combination caused more deaths than all natural hazards in the previous decade combined. Our region faces similar vulnerability to compound crises, according to Emergency Management Agency scenarios. We've identified five critical gaps in our response capabilities through recent simulations. Addressing these specific weaknesses — particularly in backup power for water treatment and cooling centers — would dramatically improve our resilience to these foreseeable combined threats."
The way forward
The Planetary Solvency report calls for the production of independent annual risk assessments that provide clear information on systemic risk to the responsible institutions. For communications professionals, this is an opportunity to align our work with a broader understanding of Earth system risks.
As intermediaries between experts, policy makers and the public, we play a crucial role in translating these complex risk assessments into language that inspires action. The report's RESILIENCE framework provides a valuable model for how we can address this challenge.
Through risk-based communication that recognises the primacy of the Earth system, the interconnections between risks and the potential for non-linear change, we can help bridge the gap between scientific understanding and effective action.
The alternative - sticking to communication approaches that fragment issues, downplay risks and ignore systemic connections - risks leaving us unprepared for the cascading challenges.
The dashboard is flashing red. Our job is to make sure that everyone sees it — and understands what it means.
References and further reading.
1 Trust, S., Saye, L., Bettis, O., Bedenham, G., Hampshire, O., Lenton, T., Abrams, J., King, D., Cleary, P., King, Z., Harrison, S., & Clarke, R. (2025). Collaborative insights in the public interest Planetary Solvency -finding our balance with nature Global risk management for human prosperity. https://global-tipping-points.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature.pdf
2 Greenberg, M. (2022). Strategies to be prepared for a risk communication crisis. Risk Analysis, 42(11), 2354–2361. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14022
3 Lehrer, L., Hellmann, L., Temme, H., Otten, L., Hübenthal, J., Geiger, M., Jenny, M. A., & Betsch, C. (2023). Communicating climate change and health to specific target groups. PubMed, 8(Suppl 6), 36–56. https://doi.org/10.25646/11773
Sponsor
Start learning AI in 2025
Everyone talks about AI, but no one has the time to learn it. So, we found the easiest way to learn AI in as little time as possible: The Rundown AI.
It's a free AI newsletter that keeps you up-to-date on the latest AI news, and teaches you how to apply it in just 5 minutes a day.
Plus, complete the quiz after signing up and they’ll recommend the best AI tools, guides, and courses – tailored to your needs.
What I am reading/testing/checking out:
Let’s meet!
 Here are the events and conferences I'll be speaking at. If you're around, feel free to message me, and we can meet up. |
|
How satisfied were you with the content in this edition? 📚 |
By the way: I'm a huge fan of Beehiiv
For those managing communications at any scale - from individual thought leadership to comprehensive corporate messaging strategies - Beehiiv merits serious consideration.
In the interest of full disclosure, I do receive a commission from qualified referrals. However, my recommendation comes from direct experience implementing Beehiiv across multiple communication initiatives with consistently positive outcomes. 😊 ✍️
PS: I hope you've enjoyed this newsletter! Creating it each weekend is a labour of love that I provide for free. If you've found my writing valuable, the best way to support it is by sharing it with others. Thank you for reading!
Parts of this newsletter were created using AI technology to draft content. In addition, all AI-generated images include a caption stating, 'This image was created using AI'. These changes were made in line with the transparency requirements of the EU AI law for AI-generated content. Some links in this newsletter may be affiliate links, meaning I earn a small commission if you click and make a purchase; however, I only promote tools and services that I have tested, use myself, or am convinced will make a positive difference.
Reply