Strategic Outlook 2024: What It Means for Crisis Communicators

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Dear reader,

First, I would like to thank Daniel Ravner, Co-Founder and CEO of Brinker AI for sharing his experience with AI in the context of online harassment and reputation management, and everyone who attended the webinar.

For those who missed it, here’s the replay link.

During the webinar, it was mentioned that if you have any questions for David, you can ask them through his LinkedIn profile, so don’t hesitate to reach out to him.

Next, in today’s edition of the Wag The Dog Newsletter, I’ll be looking at the freshly published report by Dragonfly* titled Strategic Outlook 2024: The Resilience Gap.

Let’s dive in.

_{*Dragonfly is a geopolitical and security intelligence service used and trusted by leading professionals in the world’s most influential organisations.}

Dragonfly’s Strategic Outlook report provides a comprehensive analysis of global security challenges and resilience strategies. It focuses on geopolitical risks, societal resilience, and the role of technology, particularly AI, in shaping the future.

It argues that while technological advances offer solutions, they also exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.

For example, AI has the potential to revolutionise threat detection but also poses the risk of job losses and political oppression. The document highlights the need for a robust regulatory framework to address these challenges.

It also talks about the long-term effects of crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, which has ended for many people but still affects millions through Long Covid.

Here’s a recap of the major findings of their 97-page report:

Geopolitical Dependencies

The document explains that by distancing itself from Russia, especially regarding the Ukraine crisis, the West has unintentionally become more vulnerable to China, specifically with regards to Taiwan.

Implication: This suggests a geopolitical balancing act where solving one problem may exacerbate another. Organisations need to consider multi-vector foreign policies and diversify geopolitical dependencies.

Societal Resilience

Over 200 million people are still affected by Long Covid, even though the COVID-19 pandemic may be over for most.

Implication: This has broader societal implications, affecting workforce productivity and healthcare systems. Organisations should factor this into their long-term planning.

AI in Security

AI is revolutionising threat detection and early warning systems, but it also has downsides like job losses and political repression.

Implication: While AI can be a force multiplier in security, its adverse effects could lead to social unrest and political instability. Regulatory measures and ethical considerations are crucial.

Regulatory Challenges

The rapid evolution of technology, especially AI, is outpacing the development of effective regulations.

Implication: This lag poses a risk of outdated or ineffective laws, making it crucial for organisations to self-regulate and anticipate future legal landscapes. (More on this below in the “What I am reading” section)

Economic Impacts

Extreme weather events and other crises are likely to sustain inflation and fiscal pressure.

Implication: This could affect the long-term resilience of states and organisations. Economic diversification and robust fiscal policies are essential.

Digital Repression

AI technologies are extending the capacity of states for digital repression, with countries like Russia and China being notable examples.

Implication: This poses risks to civil liberties and business operations, especially for organizations operating globally.

Need for Action

There is an urgent need for national and international regulatory frameworks to manage the risks associated with technological advancements.

Implication: Failure to act promptly could widen the gap between risks and resilience, making it imperative for organisations to engage in policy advocacy and prepare for multiple scenarios.

What does this mean for Crisis Communicators?

The findings of “Strategic Outlook 2024: The Resilience Gap" have significant implications for crisis communication professionals.

• The complexity of geopolitical interdependencies and the societal implications of Long Covid require effective, empathetic communication.

• The increasing importance of AI in security presents opportunities and challenges and highlights the need to clearly communicate the implications.

• The delay in regulatory action for technological advances requires professionals to anticipate and articulate future regulatory changes.

• The potential economic impact of crises and the risk of digital repression highlight the importance of robust crisis communication strategies.

• The urgent need to manage technological risks underscores the role of professionals in policy advocacy and scenario planning.

Adaptability, anticipation, and clear communication of complex risks will be critical for crisis communication professionals in the future. Read the full report here.

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What I am reading/testing/checking out:

• Forbes - In A New Era Of Deepfakes, AI Makes Real News Anchors Report Fake Stories.

• DelComplex: AI sovereign (read unregulated) nation states in the middle of the ocean.

• The Bletchley Declaration by Countries Attending the AI Safety Summit

A Quick Note on How I Create Content for Wag The Dog

As you know, I'm passionate about AI and its applications in the fields of PR and crisis communication. So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that I use AI to help draft my articles.

Why? Well, for starters, English isn't my first language. While I'm comfortable with it, AI gives me that extra edge to ensure clarity and coherence. Secondly, I write about AI, so what better way to understand its capabilities than to use it in my own work?

I value transparency, so it's crucial for you to know that although AI assists me in drafting, I personally review and edit each article to guarantee its authenticity.

PS: I hope you've enjoyed this newsletter! Creating it each day is a labour of love that I provide for free. If you've found my writing valuable, the best way to support it is by sharing it with others. Please click the share links below to spread the word with your friends and colleagues; it would mean so much to me. Thank you for reading!

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